Author: Zoltán Kész

Russian propagandists are constantly reinventing reality

Propagandists have proven to be highly adept in constantly reinventing reality in autocratic countries, particularly Russia, where the fact that reality has constantly debunked the Kremlin’s claims could not wholly shake Russian confidence in its war on Ukraine.

“Oceania had been at war with Eastasia and in alliance with Eurasia. But that was merely a piece of furtive knowledge which he happened to possess because his memory was not satisfactorily under control. Officially, the change of partners had never happened. Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia”, wrote George Orwell in his novel 1984.

This was meant to symbolise a fictional world where those in power are highly successful in engineering their own reality, even when substantial changes occur that would normally be expected to shake the population’s trust in their own propagandists.

Unfortunately, real life has proved to be surprisingly similar to Orwell’s fictional world, as Russian propagandists have been trying to explain events on the battlefield in Ukraine.

On February 26, 2022, two days after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a (now removed) text on the Russian state news agency Ria Novosti declared Russian victory, praising the Kremlin for restoring Russian unity and ending Ukraine’s existence as an “anti-Russia”.

However, total Russian victory soon became impossible, so there had to be a pivot to a new narrative. After all, based on Russian propaganda, the people at home should have been expecting their soldiers to come home soon.

So, an old narrative about NATO provoking war with Russia via its Ukrainian “subject” was refurbished. It was, in fact, NATO and its support for Kyiv that was leading to “military escalation”. In April 2022, RT head Margarita Simonyan, a key pillar of Russian propaganda, declared on Russian state TV that the country was “waging war against NATO”.

Managing expectations

The situation worsened for Russia when Ukraine launched a highly successful counter-offensive in the autumn of 2022, regaining significant lost ground. Propagandists were confused, blaming security services, Kremlin advisers, and the lack of general mobilisation. They, however, quickly returned to their previous claims about Russia being at war with NATO rather than Ukraine. “Brussels” was accused of prolonging suffering by supporting Ukraine and the West. Some claimed the war was lasting longer than expected because Russia “greatly cares about civilians”.

Elsewhere, actors who claim to support peace—such as Hungary’s government—claim that Ukraine has done “what it possibly could” on the battlefield; it could not advance. It stopped being sovereignbecause it could only function off Western money, so it should return to the negotiating table.

As such, expectations have been constantly redrawn by Russian or pro-Russian propagandists regarding the war. From a three-day battle, the expectations were changed because of an alleged fight with NATO or because Russia was “taking care of civilians”. Setbacks were explained by Russia not putting everything it had into the fight.

As of June 2023, the majority of Russians (73 per cent) support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, according to a poll by Levada, and 54 per cent said the “special military operation” was progressing successfully.

However, only 40 per cent supported continuing military actions—down from 48 per cent in May. Even if we consider measuring public opinion in Russia extremely challenging, data suggest that the complete failure of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine still appears to be a success to most Russians, even though many want an end to the war.

Hearts and minds

It must be noted that the West is currently in an information war with the Kremlin for the hearts and minds of the people, especially Western populations; support for governments aiding Ukraine is not collapsing.

The Kremlin meanwhile is playing a long game, waiting for the exhaustion of the West and its abandonment of Ukraine. This war is deeply asymmetric. The West has barely any access to Russia’s information space, while Russia can (mostly) freely broadcast its messages in Europe and North America by circumventing sanctions or via intermediaries.

Additionally, populations of authoritarian regimes might be more resilient to war exhaustion due to their restrictive information environments.

Overall, the West needs to invest more into improving the resilience of its populations, not via repression but—instead—education, media literacy, and proper strategic communications by governments.

This is, of course, going to take longer than it took for the Kremlin to turn Russia into an autocracy. Investment in these strategic actions must start flowing right now.

Originally published here

Zoltán Kész
European Union Russia Ukraine

Online trolls will be targeting next year’s European elections

Online trolls are already actively disseminating pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives, and these inauthentic networks will likely try to influence the 2024 European parliamentary election. Pro-Ukraine forces must combat these efforts both rhetorically and legislatively.

An investigation by Correctiv recently revealed the existence of a pro-Russian fake account network in Germany working on spreading misleading narratives favourable to the Kremlin via Facebook ads and links to disinformation sites, fake government documents, and content by the politicians of the German far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party.

One such ad accused Ukrainians of burning churches based on a video taken in Russia over a decade ago. Even though the video did not depict what was claimed, it was allowed to spread freely on social media.

Troll networks were also revealed to be spreading pro-Russian disinformation narratives regarding the war in the V4 and Germany, Italy, or Romania by Political Capital based in Hungary. 

The methods exposed by the Hungarian institute were pretty basic: potentially fake and real accounts on Facebook started copy-pasting the same texts into a broad range of discussions on Facebook, including under posts made by mainstream media outlets, ensuring that even users who do not seek disinformation can see their misleading claims.

The Hungarian ruling party Fidesz has also used online trolls to disseminate its propaganda narratives. One of the first known instances of this network being engaged abroad is when they tried to discredit former MEP Judith Sargentini for her leadership in a report criticising Hungary’s rule of law record. 

This is proof that Fidesz itself could also be able to try influencing EU public opinion, including views concerning Russia and the war. The ruling party has often expressed their desire to unite the European right, particularly the far-right Identity and Democracy, and the soft Eurosceptic European Conservatives and Reformers party groups. 

While the success of such plans seems somewhat impossible – due to, among others, differences in Russia – it is possible that Fidesz will use its troll network to attempt to shore up support for these forces.

What the troll networks want

Despite Facebook regularly trying to stop these troll networks, they always come back, as the social media company had previously halted the one uncovered by Correctiv – but they only succeeded temporarily.

The troll networks on Facebook and other social media outlets will be active during the 2024 European Parliament elections. The far-right is currently having substantial success in the polls. Finland’s Finns party (PS) came second in the Finnish general election, allowing it to form a government with the centre-right National Coalition. 

The new government has just survived the racism scandal of PS leader and Minister of Finance Riikka Purra.

The Austrian far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) has led the polls since November 2022, gaining an increasing advantage over the center-left SPÖ and the center-right ÖVP. In Germany, the AfD has overtaken the ruling SPD as the second-most-popular party in polls, and they are on the rise.

There is no doubt that, similarly to the situation in Germany, pro-Russian troll networks will be supporting these parties in the 2024 European elections, hoping that it will lead to a new parliament more moderate in its criticism of Russian actions in Ukraine, as the current crop of MEPs has called for EU countries to “reduce diplomatic relations with Russia and keep them to the absolute minimum necessary.” 

Even if the European Parliament has no power in managing the Union’s foreign policy, it would benefit the Kremlin if one of the EU’s critical legislative institutions reduced pressure on the European Commission and member states to act tough on Russia.

The widescale troll activity expected during the election campaign will try to ride Europe’s perceived wave of war fatigue. While Europeans are clearly in favour of most decisions the European Union has made regarding the war in Ukraine, there are some weak points in the bloc. 

The latest Eurobarometer survey revealed that only 36 per cent of Cypriots support the EU’s sanctions policy vis-á-vis Russia, while 56 per cent oppose them, and in Bulgaria, those in favour are only a slim majority. 

There are 15 member states out of the 27 where at least 20 per cent of respondents said they disagree with the sanctions, so there is clearly a broad electoral base open to pro-Kremlin manipulation.

Pro-Ukraine actors must be ready

It cannot be said that the European Union is not attempting to moderate the disinformation prevalent on social media sites. Its signature legislation on social media platforms, the Digital Services Act, obliges these platforms to assess and address systemic risks such as the “intentional manipulation of their service, including using inauthentic use or automated exploitation of the service.” 

However, this legislation is still in the early stages of implementation, and its actual effects will only be seen well after Europeans go to the polls in 2024.

Parallelly, the voluntary Strengthened Code of Practice on Disinformation signatories agreed to bolster policies to address mis- and disinformation and agree on understanding manipulative behaviors, such as coordinated inauthentic behaviour. 

This commitment will also become an obligation due to the DSA, but the steps taken by signatories so far indicate that the code will yield only a short time.

Overall, pro-EU, pro-Ukraine actors, and—in parallel—social media sites must be ready for a tough fight during the 2024 European election campaign, where malign actors will seek to lay the foundations of a more Russia-friendly European Parliament. 

This must be combatted both rhetorically by explaining to people what practical benefits supporting Ukraine brings and through legislation aimed at inauthentic networks. 

Originally published here

Zoltán Kész
European Union

Half the Population Thinks TikTok is Unsafe 

The past three months have seen a surge in legislation regarding the Chinese app TikTok, mainly for security reasons; that is, the app is partly owned by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Starting with the United States and continuing with Canada, the European Union finally realized the apparent cybersecurity threat. From March 20, the Chinese app has been suspended from all corporate devices of the EU’s leading institutions. At the same time, some member states are also investigating the possibility of a similar ban. Also, there has been an intensive campaign by the Consumer Choice Center to raise legislative awareness of the security issues that arise when using Chinese technology. 

Today in the European Union, half the population uses the app. There are concerns that more than this legislative ban is needed to prevent China from gathering the private information it needs. The app has become one of the most popular online pastimes, especially among the younger generation, but are people aware of the risks and threats the app poses? 

To understand the attitude of users, the best country to go to is Hungary. The country has been the gateway for China to the European Union. In the past decade, the government’s Eastern Opening policy has emphasized doing business with China, having Chinese investments, and making Hungary a strong ally in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. If there is a country in the EU with significant Chinese influence, it is Hungary. 

Civitas Institute has carried out a representative research poll related to the general and specific attitudes of the population toward TikTok. The most important question to ask about the app is whether people are aware of its security issues. Compared to the rest of the Union, the number of users in Hungary is at most 50%. Interestingly, nearly half the population (47%) thinks the app is not secure, while only 21% think it is ok. 

When looking at the correlation between education level and trust, most of those with university degrees find the app insecure. Still, those with little education could not tell whether TikTok is safe. Civitas Institute has asked whether our data is accessible to Chinese intelligence. Close to 40% of respondents agree with the statement. When investigating the attitude of respondents based on party preference, it is seen that the polarization of society shows perfectly. Pro-government respondents are more likely to trust Chinese products than opposition sympathizers. 

Generally speaking, most populations are either unaware of risks or disregard them regarding online security. This can be due to the need for more awareness but can also be attributed to the popular aspects of the app that may exceed security concerns. It is worth investigating how people would react to innovations if they found out about the security and political realities behind them. 

Originally published here

Zoltán Kész
China European Union

Az Európai Bizottság száműzte a TikTok-ot

Először Ronald Trump elnöksége alatt merült fel a TikTok nevű, rendkívül népszerű alkalmazás betiltásának gondolata. A kezdeményezés támogatói arra hivatkoztak, hogy a kínai fejlesztésű program a háttérben érzékeny, személyes adatokat gyűjt a felhasználókról, amelyek a kínai titkosszolgálatokhoz is eljuthatnak. Akkor sokan úgy gondolták, hogy ez az ügy is része annak a gazdasági háborúnak, amely az Egyesült Államok és Kína között zajlik. Azaz, nem kell a felvetést túl komolyan venni, az amerikaiak így akarnak egy kínai sikertörténetet lejáratni.

Ehhez képest újabban hetente jelennek meg hírek arról, hogy Európában és Észak-Amerikában betiltják a TikTok használatát a kormányzati eszközökön.

Emmanuel Macron tavaly decemberben azzal vádolta meg a „Peking által politikailag erőteljesen szabályozott” közösségi médiás felületet, hogy orosz propagandát terjeszt. A francia államfő arról is beszélt a fiatalkorúak mentális egészségéről folytatott szakmai találkozón, hogy a TikTok „valódi függőséget” okoz a gyerekek körében.

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Zoltán Kész
China European Union

Betiltják a TikTok-ot az Európai Parlament eszközein

A TikTok mobilalkalmazást érintő „kiberbiztonsági intézkedéseket” léptetett életbe az Európai Parlament (EP) Innovációs és Technológiai Támogatási Főigazgatósága – írta meg az értesülését a Media1.

A lap birtokába jutott az Európai Parlament (EP) Innovációs és Technológiai Támogatási Főigazgatósága által ellenjegyzett levél, amelyben mind a 705 (köztük a 21 magyar) EP-képviselőnek írtak a TikTok közösségi média applikáció ügyében.

A SZERVEZET FELHÍVJA A FIGYELMET ARRA, HOGY KIBERBIZTONSÁGI AGGÁLYOK MERÜLTEK FEL A KÍNAI PLATFORMMAL KAPCSOLATBAN,

amely leginkább az adatvédelmet és a harmadik felek által végzett adatgyűjtést érinti. A kockázatokat kellően komolyan vették, ezért

AZ EURÓPAI PARLAMENT ELNÖKE ÚGY HATÁROZOTT, HOGY AZ EP ESZKÖZEIRŐL LETILTJÁK A TIKTOK-OT.

Robert Metsola, főtitkára, más intézményekkel közösen arról állapodtak meg, hogy a kínai közösségi médiaplatformot tilos lesz telepíteni számítógépre, mobilra és táblagépre az intézmények eszközein, továbbá ha már esetleg letöltötték azt, akkor le kell majd törölni. A határozat március 20-tól lép érvénybe, onnantól kezdve a TikTok webes hozzáférése is blokkolva lesz az érintett eszközökön. Azt természetesen az EP nem tudja megakadályozni, hogy

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Zoltán Kész
China European Union

We obtained the letter: TikTok to be removed from all European Parliament devices and content blocking will also be introduced

The Directorate-General for Innovation and Technological Support of the European Parliament (EP) has implemented “cybersecurity measures” related to the TikTok mobile application.

Media1 has obtained the letters sent to all 705 MEPs on this issue.

The Directorate-General for Innovation and Technology Support writes to MEPs that cybersecurity concerns have been raised on the usage on the use of TikTok social media platform, in particular regarding data protection and collection of data by third parties.

In view of these risks, the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, and the Secretary General, in alignment with other institutions have agreed to

  • that TikTok application must not be used or installed on Parliament’s corporate devices, such as mobile phones and tablets,
  • TikTok applications that have already been downloaded and installed must be uninstalled as soon as possible.

Access to the service will also be technically blocked

This measure applies as from 20 March 2023 to Parliament corporate devices enrolled in Parliament’s mobile management application. As of this date, web access to TikTok through our corporate network, i.e. on corporate desktops and laptops, will also be blocked.

Read the full text here

Zoltán Kész
China European Union

Made in China – Sold in China

For decades, we have been used to seeing almost everything we buy with the label ‘Made in China.’ It was convenient for every party, consumer and seller alike. However, lately Chinese tech products have caused quite a lot of concern in the free world.

TikTok is one of the most talked about issues. The app’s popularity casts a shadow on the danger it poses regarding data collection and the apparent link between the company and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). No surprise that several governments have already taken steps to limit the use of the app. First, the United States banned TikTok on government devices, followed by some universities doing the same. Canada is likely to follow, and many people hope the slow and bureaucratic EU legislation will pass something similar.

Another concern is the Huawei 5G network, which some EU countries have already given up. Still, most member states depend on this Chinese technology, although many alternative service providers come from the free world. 

Lately, it has caused uproar in Australia to learn that the notorious Chinese companies Hikvision and Dahua provided surveillance cameras to government buildings. According to James Paterson, the opposition spokesperson for cybersecurity and countering foreign interference, the Commonwealth was “riddled with CCP spyware,” and he urged the government to remove them immediately. Some months ago, the same took place in the United Kingdom, where these two companies were banned due to human rights issues and possible espionage.

The latest news that has caused worry has come from Android users in China, where the cell phones of popular Chinese manufacturers like Xiaomi, OnePlus, and Oppo Realme collect a massive amount of data via their operating systems. Although, as of now, we only have information that this concerns only phones in China, we must be cautious about using similar Chinese tech products and services. Otherwise, we will end up having our data ‘Sold in China.’

Originally published here

Zoltán Kész
China European Union

Lehet, hogy betiltják Európában a TikTokot?

Egy szabad piaci értékeket valló lobbiszervezet arra ösztönözné az Európai Unió döntéshozóit, hogy lépjen a TikTok térnyerése ellen, mielőtt késő volna.

A Consumer Choice Center kedden az Európai Unió döntéshozóinak címzett állásfoglalásában azt írta, hogy itt az ideje, hogy az EU is fokozza a TikTokkal kapcsolatos intézkedéseit, „mielőtt ez túl késő volna” – írta meg a Media1.

Az Amerikai Egyesült Államok után úgy látszik, Európában is szorul a hurok a fiatalok körében kiemelten népszerű TikTok nevű közösségi média platform körül. Az Európai Bizottság belső piacért felelős európai biztosa, Thierry Breton január 19-én videóhíváson keresztül egyeztetett a kínai rövid videómegosztó vezérigazgatójával, Sou Ce Csuval. A biztos a beszélgetést követően azt emelte ki, hogy mivel

“az applikáció célkeresztjében tinédzserek állnak, ezért az nagyobb felelősséggel jár.”

A biztos elmondta azt is, hogy mivel a platformot európai fiatalok milliói is használják, ezért a TikToknak minden szegmensében meg kell felelnie az uniós jogszabályoknak, kiemelten a digitális szolgáltatásokról szóló EU-s jogszabálynak.

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Zoltán Kész
China European Union

Könnyen lehet, hogy betiltják a TikTokot Európában

Éppen a sok kiskorú használója, a rengeteg ellenőrizetlen tartalma és a kínai kommunista párt befolyása, valamint a súlyos adatvédelmi aggályok miatt az EU-ban is a közeljövőben átgondolják a helyzetet. Ez pedig a TikTok betiltásához is vezethet.

Mintha az elmúlt napokban kezdene elfogyni az EU-ban a levegő a TikTok körül.

Január 19-én az Európai Bizottság belső piacért felelős európai biztosa, Thierry Breton videóhíváson keresztül tárgyalt a kínai minivideó-megosztó platform vezérigazgatójával, Sou Ce Csuval – számolt be róla a Média1. A biztos a megbeszélés kapcsán a TikTok elsősorban tizenéves közönségére utalva úgy fogalmazott:

„fiatalabb közönséggel nagyobb felelősség is jár”.

„A lehető leghamarabb”

Breton hozzátette, hogy az európai fiatalok millióit elérő platformként a TikToknak teljes mértékben meg kell felelnie az uniós jogszabályoknak, különösen a digitális szolgáltatásokról szóló EU-s jogszabálynak. Az európai uniós nyelvezettől eltérően szokatlanul élesen hozzátette, hogy megkérte a TikTok vezérigazgatóját, hogy a „lehető leghamarabb” mutassa be „nemcsak az erőfeszítéseket, hanem azok eredményeit is”.

Read the full text here

Zoltán Kész
China European Union

Könnyen lehet, hogy betiltják a TikTokot Európában

Éppen a sok kiskorú használója, a rengeteg ellenőrizetlen tartalma és a kínai kommunista párt befolyása, valamint a súlyos adatvédelmi aggályok miatt az EU-ban is a közeljövőben átgondolják a helyzetet. Ez pedig a TikTok betiltásához is vezethet.

Mintha az elmúlt napokban kezdene elfogyni az EU-ban a levegő a TikTok körül.

Január 19-én az Európai Bizottság belső piacért felelős európai biztosa, Thierry Breton videóhíváson keresztül tárgyalt a kínai minivideó-megosztó platform vezérigazgatójával, Sou Ce Csuval – számolt be róla a Média1. A biztos a megbeszélés kapcsán a TikTok elsősorban tizenéves közönségére utalva úgy fogalmazott:

„fiatalabb közönséggel nagyobb felelősség is jár”.

„A lehető leghamarabb”

Breton hozzátette, hogy az európai fiatalok millióit elérő platformként a TikToknak teljes mértékben meg kell felelnie az uniós jogszabályoknak, különösen a digitális szolgáltatásokról szóló EU-s jogszabálynak. Az európai uniós nyelvezettől eltérően szokatlanul élesen hozzátette, hogy megkérte a TikTok vezérigazgatóját, hogy a „lehető leghamarabb” mutassa be „nemcsak az erőfeszítéseket, hanem azok eredményeit is”.

A január 19-i tárgyalást megelőzte január 10-én egy személyes brüsszeli találkozó, amikor Sou Ce Csu több biztossal is eszmecserét folytatott a platform európai jövőjéről. Vera Jourova, az Európai Bizottság alelnöke ekkor közölte: nem szabad, hogy kétséges legyen, hogy az európai felhasználók adatai biztonságban vannak és nincsenek kiszolgáltatva harmadik országbeli hatóságok illegális hozzáférésének. Emmanuel Macron francia elnök szerint a kínai platform „megtévesztően ártatlannak tűnik”, de függőséget okoz és orosz dezinformációt terjeszt.

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Zoltán Kész
China European Union

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